American Football Bets
Naturally, a sport watched around the world by millions like American Football also attracts substantial betting activity. From outright betting to niche in-game bets, there are masses of markets available every week of the season. Here we will refer mostly to the NFL, as it is the biggest source of markets by a long stretch, but college football will boast similar betting options. The following are just a few of the many markets bookmakers make available for one of the biggest, loudest, most athletically impressive and of course lucrative sports in the world.
Outright Betting
Outright betting can refer to a few things in the NFL, but the market simply asks punters to pick a winner. Most commonly, the outright tournament market entails choosing the side that will win the Super Bowl and receive the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Though certain teams are expected to be successful virtually every season the NFL is rarely straightforward. 19 franchises have been victorious in 50 editions of the Super Bowl, with the Pittsburgh Steelers winning a record six, though none since the 2008 season.
The play-off system that follows the regular season is just one reason why predicting the Super Bowl champion is no easy task. Even when the Carolina Panthers boasted a 15-1 season record going into Super Bowl 50, the Denver Broncos still won.
Moreover, because of the equilibrium effect of the draft, betting on last season’s winner or even one of the most successful sides, is no guaranteed route to profit. Whilst sports such as English football (5000/1 Leicester aside!) have fairly entrenched “big” clubs, various financial measures make betting on the NFL far less predictable. On the plus side this does mean that even the favourites in the outright betting tend to offer a decent return, with odds of around 8/1 to 10/1 common in pre-season.
There are outright odds also offered on conference and division winners. There are two NFL conferences, the National Football Conference and American Football Conference – or NFC and AFC. Both Conferences have North, South, East and West divisions, meaning there are two Conferences and eight divisions that have outright winners.
Divisions only feature four franchises (teams), while Conferences feature 16 and the overall NFL title is competed by 32, so naturally the odds reflect that. Long odds are not available for division winners, while they are quite rare in Conference betting. However, they provide good betting opportunities while you wait for the full season to pan out. It should also be noted that the ‘To reach the Super Bowl’ betting market is essentially the same market as picking an outright Conference winner.
Match Odds
Known in America as ‘money line’ betting, match odds simply require the punter to choose the side that will win the game. Ties are very rare – NFL games have overtime in an attempt to avoid them occurring, and there have been just three since modified overtime rules were first implemented in 2012 – so naturally they command huge odds.
It is always handy to look at form and injury news, especially if a reserve quarterback has to be drafted in or a side with a good offence are taking on a side with a poor or depleted defensive unit. The best odds can be found in teams whose chances are well-matched, and such games are readily available.
However, as with most US sports, the “match odds”, or money line, is not one of the major markets, at least not with US fans. “The spread”, which we will come to next, is by far the most popular American football bet and this is essentially a handicap betting market.
Match Spread
What English bookmakers call handicap betting is referred to as the spread, or match spread, in American markets. The spread is an extremely popular NFL market as it provides much more competitive match odds than regular match betting and means even betting on the favourites can be rewarding. Handicaps are applied to a side, and it impacts on their points tally. The choice is either to apply a negative handicap to a stronger side, or a positive handicap to the underdog.
A negative handicap acts to reduce the points total of a franchise, so a -5 handicap will take five points off a team’s total points tally at full time. So if the Seattle Seahawks beat the Green Bay Packers 21-14, the handicap would effectively make the score 16-14. For overcoming the handicap, the punter would be well rewarded. If the Seahawks only win 17-14, the score would become 12-14 after the handicap and the bet would lose.
A positive handicap adds points. A +5 handicap for the Packers in a 17-14 defeat would see the bet win, as the score for the purpose of the spread would become 17-19. Therefore, a battling performance by a stark underdog can win big even if the team lose, or a crushing victory for the favourite can make a lot more money than a simple outright match bet.
The spread, sometimes also known as the line, is designed such that both sides have a roughly equal chance of winning. The odds reflect this, so most bets on the point spread are usually placed at odds slightly lower than evens. Many bookmakers will offer an alternative spread, perhaps giving a favourite more points to overcome and thus increasing the odds for those looking for a larger return. When a side does overcome their handicap they are said to have “beaten the spread”.
Total Points
This market asks punters to estimate the number of points that will be scored during the match as a whole. Rather than asking for exact numbers, bookmakers will offer a range such as 21-25, or more vague estimations such as 25+. Guessing within a smaller range will offer better odds, but will also make the bet more volatile. A last minute touchdown or field goal could make or break the total points bet.
A good tactic is to look at matches between two well-matched sides. Betting on a high number of points being scored in a game between two offensively strong franchises, or a low number being scored in a match between two solid defences, gives you a better chance of making some money.
This is usually an over/under bet, with the totals generally expressed in half points, for example you might bet on over or under 39.5 points. As with the main spread, the points total is usually set at the level the bookies expect to occur, with over and under both priced at similar odds, slightly lower than evens.
As before, alternative spreads are also available at the best NFL betting sites. This is to offer a higher return to those who feel the match will have considerably more – or fewer – points than the bookies have predicted.
Double Result
A double result asks punters to bet on not only the full time result, but the half time result as well. Because you are betting on two outcomes rather than one, the odds are lengthened compared to normal money line betting and this is the exact same market as soccer’s HT/FT.
As a tie is notoriously rare, even after just two quarters, any combination including a tie commands higher odds, with a “Tie/Tie” bet offering by far the biggest potential rewards. Such a wager will generally deliver odds around the 50/1 to 100/1 mark! The market is good for either predicting a game to turn on its head between the half time and full time whistles, or for stressing the dominance of one side over the other.
MVP/Rookie of the Year
Individual accolades are very important in the NFL, and as a result they also attract plenty of bets. The MVP, or Most Valuable Player, is awarded to the best player of the season. The Rookie of the Year award is given to the player who performs best in their first NFL season.
As every winner of the MVP award since 1986 has been a quarterback or a running back, while four of the last five Rookie of the Year winners have been a quarterback (as of 2016), the list of viable options is limited.
It is more likely that the MVP will be part of the winning franchise, or at least one that will go far, so it is often a good idea to consider the outright odds at the same time. Rookies normally get more of a chance at franchises with a smaller chance of going all the way, so it is a good idea to keep an eye on the draft and the sides likely to field a decent number of rookies in every game.
Other American Football Bets
There is no betting market in sport, or anywhere else, as packed as that of American Football. If anything happens at all, it can be bet on. The preceding markets are very common and are available for many sports, but there are a wide range of niche bets and specials that are completely unique to American football. Here are a few common but minor betting markets, as well as some of those specials that makes betting on American Football a totally different prospect to any other sports betting.
Half Time Result
Too impatient to wait until the end of a game to see if a money line bet has paid off? There is a market for you. Punters are asked in this market to bet on the side that will lead after two quarters have been completed. Of course, there is also the option to bet on the scores being tied at half time, an outcome more likely than a tie at the end of the four quarters.
Super Bowl MVP
One of the greatest individual achievements in NFL, apart from receiving the Super Bowl ring for being part of a winning team – each ring is worth a cool $36,500 each, by the way – is winning the MVP award for the best performance in the season’s grand finale.
Though the award is normally won by quarterbacks, with 27 of the 51 MVP awards going to players in the talismanic position, linebacker Von Miller bucked the trend in 2016, as did fellow linebacker Malcolm Smith in 2014.
Number of Touchdowns
Touchdowns are a big part of the game – crossing over that white line into the end zone is one of the highlights of any match. It is also a big part of the betting scene too. For every match, punters will be given the chance to bet on the number of touchdowns that will be scored. The bet will normally be in the ‘under/over’ format – for instance, over 4.5 or fewer than 4.5 – as opposed to asking for a specific number.
Winning Margin
If a team is the clear favourite to win, a bet on them would normally offer short match odds. While the spread option is a good one, betting on the margin of victory can also be lucrative. The margin will be offered in a range, like 1-12 for an easier bet or 6-10 for a smaller range with a bigger reward.
Home/Away Total Points
Another bet that follows the ‘under/over’ format like number of touchdowns, is the home/away total points market. For this, customers bet on the total points the home side or the away side will notch up in a game.
Specials
American Football has such as huge range of markets that there are reams of specials and niche bets that will be offered by bookmakers. One of the simpler options is betting on the possibility of overtime occurring, or a team winning the game in overtime. Quarter betting is rife as well, with bets available on which team will win each of the four quarters, the number of points in a quarter and the period that will see the most points scored. Stat-based bets, such as the passing yards racked up by a quarterback in a match, are also available.
On the complete other side of the spectrum, there are some rare and wacky options. One is the multi-points bet, in which punters bet on the number of points a side scores in the first half multiplied by the number they score in the second period. So if the Denver Broncos score 7 points in the first half and 20 in the second, their total is 140 (7x20). Other very niche specials bets include the combined total of the touchdown scorers’ shirt numbers, or the minutes in which touchdowns are scored combined.
The now legendary half time show at the Super Bowl attracts a lot of hype, so there is of course a huge market for betting on the acts that will appear there. Indeed, some bookmakers may even offer odds on an act suffering a ‘wardrobe malfunction’, as Janet Jackson so famously did back in 2004.